Preparations for Trading Allocation

We recently raised our trading allocation given our expectation of continued bear markets (over the next 0-10 years) across a wide range of asset classes. Specifically, we're waiting to a take short US dollar position. Any sign of future economic stabilization will cause us to initiate this position, because we'd then expect investors to flee "safe" Treasuries in favor of "everything else." The underlying view for this position is the same as the view underlying our purchase of an ETF that rises as long-dated US Treasuries fall. We think the U.S. will have significant trouble paying for its accumulated debts, after its "mitigate recession and financial crisis at all costs" policy.

Separately, within our commodities allocation, which has been at zero for most of this year, we expect to buy an agriculture ETN.