We continue to think a series of emerging economy crises is about to happen, but we've been boosting our weighting because we see the bear case as slightly less likely. In the past several days, China has guaranteed Russia $25b in financing (a move to protect China's energy interests, but something that China could repeat across many emerging economies), the IMF has significantly increased its loan availability to emerging markets (and has lent Ukraine 8x its normal loan limit), the Fed has opened $30b swap lines with several emerging economies, and interbank lending rates have pulled back slightly further worldwide. Investing in emerging markets satisfies the William Bernstein criteria of feeling like you're "throwing money down a rat hole" (investing near potential market bottoms).
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Boosting Emerging Markets Equities Weighting Further
We've been taking baby steps, and are increasing our Emerging Markets Equities weighting now to 3% from 2% (with an ultimate goal of roughly 15%). We went into the financial crisis with a 0% weighting.
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